Briefings : UK defence policy, Nimrod, Choenan

The UK coalition government has published it's joint policy for the next parliamentary term. Defence policy holds no surprises from what has already been stated. The Tories are committed to Trident, the Lib Dems will agree to disagree, but both agree on better pay and conditions for troops on active service whilst cutting the running costs of the MOD. As for Trident the RUSI has said that cutting the number of patrols could extend the life of the existing Vanguard submarines and save billions of pounds. A risky idea to my mind considering how fast events can unfold these days.

The last Nimrod R1s are preparing for their final deployment ahead of it's retirement next year. The last 2 aircraft are to deploy to Afghanistan following a number of upgrades and are likely to remain there until retirement next March.

North Korea has been officially blamed for the destruction of the South's corvette. The Choenan was sunk by a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine according to an international team who have investigated the incident. Staying in that area RAND have been looking at the Chinese Air Force and have some interesting things to say.

 

• Chinese Aircraft: China's Aviation Industry Since 1951 (Recommended, Amazon link)

Briefings : Typhoon, CVF, Defence review

BAE Systems has won a support deal with the UK, Germany and Spain for avionics on the 3 countries fleets of Typhoons worth £150 million. Meanwhile Romania is the latest export target for the Eurofighter consortium who are trying to get the government to change a planned purchase for F-16s into ex-Italian Air Force Typhoons instead.

The new UK coalition government has said the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers currently being built for the Royal Navy are "safe" (or built anyway). Plans to move HMS Sultan, the RN's engineering training school, from Portsmouth to Wales may also be shelved.

The new Defence Secretary meanwhile said that resources would be tight over the next few years and a Strategic Defence Review would take place. He said "the needs of our armed forces can no longer be considered in isolation from other security challenges we face".

National Security Council set up

One of the Conservatives manifesto pledges with respect to defence was the setting up of a National Security Council, and they have done just that. This new group will oversee all aspects of Britain's security and will include a number of permanent members plus others bought in depending on the situation at hand. The new Minister of Defence is Dr Liam Fox and he said a Strategic Defence Review would be started immediately.

Now what will a Con-Lib coalition mean for defence?

Finally the election is over so maybe we can get back to normal. A Con-Lib coalition is what we have got, i did vote for one of the two parties in the coalition so am reasonably happy. Trident will be secured (though apparently will be looked at for value for money), personally i wanted it scrapped (so that might give away which of the coalition i did vote for?)

I thought it would be interesting to look at the two manifestos from the coalition parties and see if we can glean any common ground with respect to defence policy. First of all the Conservative manifesto stated :

• a system of regular defence reviews
• replacing Trident with like
• 25% savings in the running of the MOD
• NATO not the EU being the cornerstone of defence policy
• improves bonuses, treatment and after-care for serving service personnel

And from the Liberal Democrat manifesto :

• hold an immediate defence review
• review all major projects, Typhoon Tranche 3B would not be procured
• not replace Trident with a like for like
• improve co-operation with the French and EU
• improved pay, conditions for service personnel

There are other items for both but these are the key points. As can be seen there are some areas of overlap and some where the two parties are immediately opposed. We can expect a strategic defence review pretty soon and probably budget cuts but that was a given considering the economic difficulties. Co-operating more with the French and EU is probably not incompatible with remaining strong in NATO (as most countries in NATO are in the EU after all).

In the end the true determinant of where the shared defence policy will stand will be how much money is in the wallet and that could be pretty frugal for some time.

Briefings : Election defence plans, Watchkeeper, J-10

The Tories say they will cut the MOD's costs by a quarter in their election manifesto. One area of savings could be to cut co-operational on EU defence initiatives. The Tories also plan to retain Trident, set up a National Security Council and a homeland defence command. Hang on i thought they wanted to reduce bureaucracy? Labour meanwhile will conduct a strategic review and are committed to the aircraft carriers, they will also give a free ID card to veterans and also cut MOD waste. The Liberals will not renew Trident and improve pay and conditions for troops. Sadly finding defence in the parties' manifestos takes some time, its well down the list of priorities.

The UK could extend it's stop-gap Hermes UAV operation in Afghanistan for another 6 months while it continues to get the Watchkeeper 450 ready for service. Hermes 450 have now logged over 30,000 hours in theatre providing the bulk of British ISTAR.

China has been showing off it's J-10B with some nice aerobatics (video in link well worth seeing).

UK General Election

After months of electioneering the ..er.. general election has begun and on May 6th the British people will decide on a new government. As a political junkie i shall be enjoying the chaos and mania of course though the MOD will be on a virtual freeze so there may not be a great deal of UK defence news over the next few weeks. Unfortunately defence itself is unlikely to be much of an issue in the election despite the crocodile tears about "Our Boys" the media and (to an extent) the public like to shed. Want to improve the kit to the troops? Yes! Want to pay more taxes to afford it? Er... no!

We are likely to have a strategic defence review after the election no matter who wins. And likely defence cuts because of the economic problems. That will be true if Brown, Cameron, Clegg or Lord Bucket Head are the PM on May 7th.

Briefings : NI terrorist disarmament, Tory defence review, Iranian toys

The Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) has confirmed it has got rid of it's weapons with the help of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD). The splinter group, which was responsible for over 100 deaths during the troubles in Northern Ireland including a Conservative MP and 17 people in a bombing in 1982 said it's struggle was over. The Official IRA and the Loyalist South East Antrim Ulster Defence Association have also disarmed.

Following the government's green paper where they said the British armed forces needed to work as part of an alliance the Conservatives have countered with their plans for a strategic defence review and say British must retain the ability to act unilaterally as well as act in an alliance. Same thing really. The Tories interestingly didn't mention the RAF. So everyone wants a review for the armed forces but has anyone got any cash to give it?

France will sell Russia a Mistral helicopter carrier for a few hundred million euros and some strings. Iran have developed a UAV that is invisible to radar they claim. They also are planning a SAM system superior to the Russian S-300. I am planning a jet fighter that can wipe the F-22A out of the sky, and make toast.

Briefings : Service links, Rafale, BMD

Although a merger of the three services is probably unlikely (well hopefully) the nature of combined operations these days does make closer links between the services a good idea, and even the Defence Secretary agrees with that. He said the three services do not stand and separately as they used to citing the example of the Joint Helicopter Command.

Despite earlier reports that the Rafale had been selected for the Brazilian Air Force the defence ministry is now playing down these reports. Maybe they want the price to be cut a little more. Earlier reports suggested the order for 36 Rafale F3s had been confirmed after the price had been dropped to $6.2 billion. The Super Hornet and the Gripen NG are the other contenders, the air force is reported to prefer the Gripen but the President wants the Rafale. Personally i think the Rafale is the best choice but it is likely politics rather than anything else that will decide the "winner".

HMS Nottingham is due to be decommissioned and the crew paid farewell to their destroyer's namesake city. Romania will host US missile interceptors in the latest attempt to build a BMD shield in eastern Europe.

Three services could be merged?

Think the unthinkable seems to be the order of the day, and merging the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force into one combined force seems pretty unthinkable. However it is being thought about. Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, said merger could be part of a radical restructure of the British armed forces. It would turn the armed forces into a combined arm similar to the US Marine Corps. When asked if there would be three independant services in 10 years he said it would be "plausible".

I must admit i can see some benefits from doing it... and a lot of cons!

Strategic Defence Review round-up

The government have released a green paper ahead of a strategic defence review which will take place after the next election. The number of senior officers would be cut as less would be needed to look after a smaller armed forces. The Defence secretary has said Britain must work more closely with allies like France (shared carriers?) and become more efficient (do more for less). The Prime Minister has meanwhile denied soldiers were sent into battle without the equipment they needed. But surely that is one of the traditions of the British armed forces!

Briefings : RAF, Sweden, US Cyber warfare

The chief of the RAF has joined the inter-service debate on the future of the British armed services by saying Britain needs long-term defence plans. Unfortunately politicians tend not to do long-term very well. Sweden's military is also looking at the future and change.

The USAF's cyber warfare unit the 24th air force has become operational.

The Canadian Navy is opting to modernise it's frigates with as much non-American equipment as possible saying that buying American can lead to delays.

Defence Technical College to go ahead

The DTC at St Athan in Glamorgan is to go ahead, and will be the biggest PFI deal ever. The DTC or Defence technical College will consolidate 9 different sites to provide technical training to soldiers from all 3 services. The cost of delivering these services is £12-14 billion (depending on source) over the next 25 years. The first intake of students is planned for 2012 with full operational status by 2017. One should add that this training to be carried out in a partnership with private firms is for technical skills like engineering not combat training.

Bulldog aircraft of South Wales UAS based at St Athan.

The project is not without some controversy of course, PFI deals themselves have been criticised a fair amount over the years. The Liberal Democrats might cancel the contract, not that they are likely to ever be in a position to carry that out.

Britain will cut Trident boats to 3

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said the UK will cut it's number of Trident nuclear missile submarines from 4 to 3 as Britain's part in reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world. And we all thought it was going to save costs too! How naive we all were. Having a fleet of 3 SLBMs (and we assume the PM is talking about the Vanguard replacement programme) is probably fine, it doesn't enable you to ensure a boat on station at all times but then again we are not in the Cold War anymore always minutes from a Soviet missile attack so 3 boats will be good enough... as long as they don't crash into other submarines.

Now defence would be cut by the Tories, protected by Labour?

The general election of course has already begun (even if the election is not until next year) and for a change defence has become part of the battleground and not invisible during the campaign. Personally if being used of a political football helps get the armed forces the funding they require then so be it. The Conservatives have already said that defence would not be exempt from budget cuts if/when they get to power (though international development would be safe, i'm sure core Tory voters love that!) but now the PM (no not Brown the real PM) says defence will be exempt from spending cuts should Labour win the next election. Whether you can actually believe anything Mandleson says is another matter of course. Labour's record on funding the armed forces has not been good over the last 12 years so why should we believe 5 more years would be any better.



RN personnel investigate a pirate dhow, not as some cruel people might speculate an artist impression of the entire Royal Navy in 5 years time

Everyone wants a review

The Tories say they will conduct a strategic defence review now Labour say they will do the same after the next election, before that there will be a "root and branch" review of defence policy by the end of this year. The initial review will not look at making cuts to the defence budget, no word on what the strategic defence review would do of course.

However the initial review will "examine defence policy as a whole - its purpose, the way it works, what the services expects, its technological priorities".

Two Navy shipyards could close

Two navy shipyards could close after the conclusion of the CVF contract to build the Royal Navy's new aircraft carriers. A leaked memo from BVT which owns yards in Glasgow and Portsmouth says that the MOD is willing to pay for the 1000s of redundancies when the yards close in the middle of the next decade.



After CVF it is thought just 1 yard will be needed for RN work. Its thought likely to be one of the Clyde yards and Portsmouth as the latter is more modern but not big enough for surface ships of the size of the T42 though of course T45 (which has replaced T42) will be in long completed by then and the only naval orders on the horizon in the latter part of the next decade and beyond are likely to be the next generation frigate fleet.

UK forces finally defeated by invincible foe : New Labour

Despite overstretch, wearing out equipment, a shrinking fleet and soldiers dying because of inadequate equipment in theatre the MOD has had to find savings of £500 million. Lack of investment despite commitments only slowly reducing and manpower shortages are increasing the strain on existing personnel which in turn means more leave earlier than they would otherwise further increasing the manpower pressures. It is a vicious circle the UK forces and especially the Army cannot get out of.



According to the Conservatives Defence spokesman Gerald Howarth MP problems include the RN not having enough technicians to service it's helicopters, the MOD's own report states serious shortages in a number of areas. Some figures really do jump out and grab you like a 57% shortfall in bomb disposal NCOs (not that bomb disposal is something we need to worry about these days of course). I'm still to be convinced the Tories will be much better (though they can hardly be worse, though lets remember that the Falklands War saved the Royal Navy from a destruction far more than Argentine Exocets managed to achieve).

In Afghanistan the British Army has been shown up and the US have had to move in to take charge after overstretched British forces were unable to take and hold territory against the Taleban. A similiar situation that existed in Basra where the US and Iraqis had to restore order while the British stayed in their bases. A lack of investment plus restrictive ROE and politics holding them back.



What Napoleon, the Kaiser and Hitler tried to do, destroy the reputation and ability of the British Army has been achieved by New Labour (perhaps it was an experiment to see if wars can be fought on a peace time budget, it failed guys.) Well that is a cause for "celebration", if the politicians and media can find time to talk about it of course.

It is not terminal, the armed forces can regenerate. The British Army in the early 1930s, for example, was around the same size as it is now, yet ten years later was fighting the Second World War on many fronts. We just need budget to match commitments...

Time for the media & public to ask about the Royal Navy

The timing was perfect, the story of the hijacked oil tanker off Kenya appearing in the same bulletin as news that the largest LNG tanker yet has arrived at the UK and will form an important future part of our energy supply. The timing perfect as hopefully many people would be able to add 2 to 2 and make 5. If tankers loaded full of energy from the Middle East are to be part of our energy future then surely it would be a bad thing if they are hijacked en route right? Well hopefully it was a brief thought before attention changed to Strictly Come Sequins.



And maybe members of the public might now think about the Royal Navy and whether it is capable of protecting our energy shipments. So the time has come for the media to reveal the state of the surface fleet, how much it has declined in numbers under Labour and to ask if it can still meet the needs of our future security and whether it is ready for it's vital future role (now of course i know and you should know it has always been vital but i fear the mass of the public do not appreciate that and think all those goods on the shelves of Tesco appear by magic from the far off lands where they are grown/made).

This would require politicians and the public taking defence seriously however. Which tends to only happen when something bad has happened and the horse has already bolted. Some people have also expressed the opinion that the money spent on the navy and projects like CVF was wasted and that money should instead be spent on the troops fighting in AFghanistan and Iraq currently. OK back onto X Factor then, truly important matters.

France to submit ideas for future European defence

France are to submit a number of proposals at the December EU summit to strengthen the military capabilities of the 27 country union (not cutting defence budgets would be a great start). The French proposals will include creating a pool of A400M transports and common evolution of aircraft and surface escorts for the aircraft carriers operated by 4 EU navies, the UK government will love that as they can then say only having 6 Type 45s is fine as we can rely on France and Spain to protect our CVFs.



Other proposals will include re-organising joint EU forces to allow them to be deployed to hotspots, a 6 nation satellite surveillance project, a common coastal surveillance system and a heavy-lift helicopter.